Arne Slot, manager of Liverpool, called the new Champions League format “Strange”. Pep Guardiola from Manchester City admitted that he tried to understand his subtleties, while Real Madrid President Florentino Perez wrote it down as “absurd”.
However, the opening phase was largely considered a success. Several members of the Continental Elite were denied the automatic entry into the 16th round between a lot of thrills, spots and only eight 0-0-0 games from 144 games and were combined for the two-legged play-offs of this month.
When this latest new folds of the revised format of the competition begins, Opta have presented the predictions of your supercomputer for the winner of each play-off and the entire competition.
The headline tie from the first knockout play-off rounds is undoubtedly Manchester City‘s conflict with real Madrid. The two continental giants have taken on four times in the last five KO -Knockout phases, with both sides progressing twice to the next round.
Carlo Ancelotti was satisfied with the view of coming against the city – “We don’t like to play against her,” he sighed – but Madrid is considered a close favorite for progress after progress. OptaWith a chance of 53.1%to reach the round of 16. Guardiola could only have a few symptoms with this prediction, since he had his own judgment shortly before the draw: “You are better than us at the moment.”
While this play-off is considered to call the closest to, Paris Saint-Germain are evaluated as the heaviest favorites in their all-round French connection Brest. The investment team has already hit its domestic competitors in Ligue 1 twice this season and only fulfilled a 5-2 victory against the western top of France on February 1.
Bayern Munich could have drawn in the play-off-round city, but instead with Celtic. The trust, which progresses with a chance of 73.1%, was hit by Thomas Müller’s rally scream after the draw was done: “Let us rock it!”
“Juventus Is a strong opponent, but we believe that we are better than you. ” PSV Eindhoven Boss Peter Bosz explained. The supercomputer disagrees.
MilanThe chances of knocking Feyenoord From the competition (which are 65.7%), the signing of the best player in the Dutch club, Santiago Gimenez, stimulated during the transfer window in January. Atalanta already praise Club Brugge The graduate Charles de Ketelaere and are difficult favorites to overcome their Belgian enemies.
In the meeting between two clubs that have endured both management rounds this season, Sporting CP It is expected Borussia Dortmundwhile BenficaThe oppressed boss Bruno Lage may have to be better Monaco (As predicted) if he wants to keep his job.
First-leg lamp | Predicted winner (probability of victory) |
|---|---|
Brest against PSG | PSG (85.7%) |
Juventus against PSV | Juventus (55.6%) |
Man City against Real Madrid | Real Madrid (53.1%) |
Sporting against Borussia Dortmund | Sporting (66.2%) |
Club Brugge against Atalanta | Atalanta (73.4%) |
Celtic against Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich (73.1%) |
Feyenoord against Milan | Milan (65.7%) |
Monaco against Benfica | Benfica (56.4%) |
While the teams that were between the ninth and 24th place in the swollen league phase in Duke in February, eight clubs were able to easily rest with their place in the 16 years in March.
Liverpool The newly caught overall ranking only took points against PSV when Arne Slot Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Alisson and a flood of other players from the first team left at home. The Reds increased the club’s seventh European Cup in almost a quarter (24.6%) of the 10,000 simulations of Opta Supercomputer.
arsenal are considered the next winner in a competition that they have never won infamously. Through third place in the league, the Gunners (and fourth place Inter) will compete in the 16th round of PSV, Juventus, Feyenoord or Milan, which avoids Liverpool and Barcelona to at least the semi -finals of the competition.
Barcelona should not be reduced yourself. Hansi Flick’s free record breaker by Hansi Flick are a volatile offer in every respect.
Given your longer way to the final, real MadridThe chances of keeping their Champions League Trophy at only 4.4% Manchester City are tenth favorites (3.2%).
Ultimately, these numbers are hardly more than rough estimates. Before the campaign started, RB Leipzig was the tenth favorite to win the competition, but they crashed in the first round. The 2021 winner Thomas Tuchel once described the Champions League as “the most beautiful competition, but the most difficult competition we play”. It is also one of the most difficult to predict.
Rank | team | Probability of winning the Champions League |
|---|---|---|
1. | Liverpool | 24.6% |
2. | arsenal | 16.6% |
3. | Inter | 14.5% |
4. | Barcelona | 9.5% |
5. | PSG | 6.3% |
6. | real Madrid | 4.4% |
7. | Atletico Madrid | 3.9% |
8. | Bayer Leverkusen | 3.7% |
9. | Atalanta | 3.5% |
10. | Mannstadt | 3.2% |
11. | Bayern Munich | 2.1% |
12. | Sports | 1.8% |
13. | Aston Villa | 1.3% |
14. | Milan | 1% |
15. | Juventus | 0.9% |
16. | Lille | 0.8% |
17. | Benfica | 0.6% |
18. | PSV | 0.4% |
19. | Monaco | 0.3% |
20. | Club Brugge | 0.2% |
21. | Borussia Dortmund | 0.1% |
22. | Feyenoord | 0.1% |
23. | Celtic | 0.1% |
24. | Brest | 0% |