After Arsenal and Chelsea dropped points away from home on Saturday, the stage was set for Liverpool to take full control of the Premier League title race.
The league-leading Reds welcomed a Manchester United side suffering four straight defeats to Anfield on Sunday afternoon, knowing that a win would see them extend their lead at the top to eight points within a game.
Former United captain Roy Keane predicted a brawl before kick-off but the stern Irishman was quick to praise the Red Devils’ competence as Michael Oliver ended a breathless Premier League battle.
Liverpool ended up escaping with a point as Harry Maguire failed in the final game, giving hope to their title-fighting rivals. The Reds remain in a dominant position, but they haven’t broken away yet.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer projects the final Premier League table to keep an eye on what’s happening over the weekend.
position | team | Expected points |
|---|---|---|
1. | Liverpool | 87.24 |
2. | arsenal | 78.14 |
3. | Man City | 69.53 |
4. | Chelsea | 68.77 |
5. | Newcastle | 63.10 |
6. | Nottingham Forest | 60.79 |
7. | Aston Villa | 57.82 |
8. | Bournemouth | 56.98 |
9. | Fulham | 53.39 |
10. | Brighton | 52.65 |
11. | Tottenham | 52.02 |
12. | Man Utd | 50.58 |
13. | Brentford | 48.72 |
14. | West Ham | 46.12 |
15. | Crystal Palace | 45.06 |
16. | Everton | 38.17 |
17. | Wolves | 34.39 |
18. | Ipswich | 31.36 |
19. | Leicester | 29.94 |
20 | Southampton | 7 p.m |
Opta doesn’t think Liverpool will continue at their current pace, but they don’t expect a major slip-up either. Liverpool would secure 92 points at their current level, but the supercomputer predicts the Reds will clinch their second Premier League title with 87 points.
However, Opta has little hope of a competitive race at the summit. Liverpool’s closest rival is either weak or hamstrung by serious injuries. As a result, Arsenal, who have a 10.23% chance of winning the league, are expected to finish in second place, almost ten points behind. Manchester City, which showed signs on either side of New Year’s Day of regaining stability and composure after its ongoing malaise ruled it out of title contention, is now expected to finish third.
City’s expected points return of 69.53 would easily be the lowest in the Pep Guardiola era. Yet they are confident they will finish ahead of Chelsea, whose festive season difficulties appear to have carried over into 2025. The Blues are more likely to face challengers for a place in the top four than fight for the league, but Opta suggests that we will end up with a healthy lead over fifth-placed Newcastle.
Nottingham Forest’s remarkable season may be flagging slightly, but a European berth for 2025/26 is not out of reach. Their expected return of 60.79 points would be their best result in the Premier League to date.
Opta is not optimistic about Tottenham or Man Utd rekindling their respective seasons, with the latter expected to endure their least productive season of the Premier League era. Spurs are also on course to reach their lowest points tally since 2008/09 – a season that Harry Redknapp managed to save after they started the season bottom of the table under Juande Ramos.
The supercomputer predicts that only Wolves and possibly Everton will be drawn into the relegation battle with Ipswich, but all three newly promoted clubs will ultimately return to the Championship. Southampton’s projected tally of 19 points would be the fifth-worst overall record in Premier League history.
Wolves look set to avoid relegation by a margin of three points, with Kieran McKenna’s Tractor Boys losing in League Two by an expected 31.36 points.